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Analysis of Long-term Trend and Change points in Maximum Air Temperature within Mississippi River Valley Alluvial Aquifer
Proceedings of the 2022 Mississippi Water Resources Conference

Year: 2022 Authors: Raju M., Ramirez Avila J.J.

In this study, an attempt is made to investigate long-term trends in maximum temperature within Lower Mississippi River Basin (LMRB) in order to understand the temperature patterns within Mississippi River Valley Alluvial Aquifer (MRVAA) at annual time scale. Daily air temperature data of Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN) was used to obtain daily maximum air temperature for seventy-six (76) stations within LMRB. Non-parametric statistical tests, Modified Mann Kendall (MMK) and Pettitt were used at 0.05 significance level to assess the trend and change point analysis in temperature variable. Results of MMK trend tests indicated significant increasing and decreasing trends. However, increasing trends outnumbered decreasing trends. Magnitude of annual maximum temperature showed an increase by 0.0005 - 0.0012 ℃ per year over the period 1969 to 2019. Change point analysis results at 0.05 significance level, indicated that increasing shifts occurred since 1985, with decreasing shifts in the year 1988. The results of this study will help in understanding the behavior of temperature patterns in an agriculturally intensive region. Further, the study needs to be extended to explore the trends and changepoints in other temperature variables like mean, minimum to understand the overall pattern of temperature variables within MRVAA to plan and manage the irrigation and crop production.

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